PROBABLE PASSAGE
Instructions​
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Choose 8–12 words from the passage. Consider mixing familiar and unfamiliar terms.
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Determine three to four categories. For ELA or social studies, character, setting, problem and resolution might work well. For science, substances, processes, problem, location and solution might work well. Provide students with a graphic organizer labeled with the categories you determine.
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Students sort the words into the appropriate categories and then write a “probable passage” gist statement, a short summary of what they think will happen in the story.
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Facilitate a class discussion where students share and compare their predictions. Discuss any words they found unfamiliar and clarify meanings.
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As students read the actual text, they check their predictions and revise their understanding of the vocabulary. They can return to the graphic organizer and re-sort their words or refine their gist statements.
Source: Dr. Sarah Lupo
THE RESEARCH
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Probable Passage is grounded in the research-based practice of explicitly teaching story structure, a high-impact strategy for improving reading comprehension of narrative texts (IES Practice Guide, 2022).
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It also supports vocabulary acquisition through contextualized word use and active engagement, two factors that significantly impact comprehension (Hattie, 2018). By encouraging students to infer and hypothesize before reading, this strategy helps develop critical thinking and prepares students to read with purpose.
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According to Hattie's research, the components of the Probable Passage strategy, such as teaching text structure (0.55), vocabulary instruction (0.62), and activating prior knowledge (0.93), make it a high-impact practice for improving reading comprehension.